Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:14:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5A 0x5a78…4ae1 crypto 340 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (494 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,407 (+59%) realized +$4,406 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate56%189W / 150L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day493.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$309
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (494 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 339 -4.5% -13.6% 56% 45% -5.8%
≤30d 339 -4.5% -13.6% 56% 45% -5.8%
≤90d 339 -4.5% -13.6% 56% 45% -5.8%
all 339 -4.5% -13.6% 56% 45% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover493.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 45% -5.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 34% -14.8%
15% -29.4% 22% -23.0%
20% -36.3% 14% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$4,406
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses189 / 150
Open positions1
Markets (closed)339 / 340
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day493.9
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 339 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Down 17¢ 34¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+103%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$5 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $39 −$29 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $78 −$21 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$6 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$24 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$10 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$12 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$8 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$11 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$8 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $22 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $110 −$110 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $0 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $0 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 25m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.72 · official $7.02 (match) · 3500 history records