Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:12:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a7b…fdd1 other 1283 markets active 2h ago coverage 377d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$924 (-2%) realized −$751 · open −$173
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%576W / 551L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$10,016now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$168
7 days−$4,536
14 days−$4,532
30 days−$3,632
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$201
sports 10% −$164
crypto 7% −$642
world 1% +$119
politics 1% −$35
economics 0% +$23
tech 0% +$9
finance 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -18.5% -26.2% 30% 29% -64.5%
≤30d 144 -15.8% -23.8% 35% 35% -39.3%
≤90d 261 -10.9% -19.4% 41% 40% -28.0%
all 1127 -3.5% -12.7% 51% 50% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 50% -10.7%
10% -21.1% 46% -19.3%
15% -28.7% 39% -27.1%
20% -35.7% 31% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$33 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

377d coverage
Net worth$10,016
Realized−$751
Unrealized−$173
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses576 / 551
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions154
Markets (closed)1127 / 1283
History coverage377d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 154 History 1127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $6,436 $6,219 −$216 (-3%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 73¢ 100¢ $241 $327 +$86 (+36%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $241 $286 +$45 (+19%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $160 $161 +$1 (+1%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 56¢ $200 $160 −$40 (-20%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 90¢ $140 $157 +$17 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $190 $153 −$37 (-20%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 40¢ $200 $135 −$65 (-32%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 90¢ $90 $123 +$33 (+36%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 72¢ $120 $123 +$3 (+2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 80¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 88¢ 90¢ $70 $72 +$2 (+3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 61¢ 64¢ $60 $63 +$3 (+5%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $55 $57 +$2 (+3%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 75¢ 80¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 76¢ 80¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-30%)
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 82¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+14%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 88¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 343 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $10 +$4 +39%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $162 +$82 +51%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $187 +$106 +57%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 +$30 +982%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $5 −$2 -48%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -89%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $121 −$83 -69%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $26 −$1 -5%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $36 +$34 +95%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $106 −$57 -54%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $30 +$4 +14%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$3 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$5 +26%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$7 -68%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$35 +68%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 +$10 +100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$29 +96%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $45 +$15 +33%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $35 +$21 +60%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 +$8 +276%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$20 +40%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $132 +$164 +124%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $122 +$89 +73%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 +$23 +38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $91 −$90 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $141 +$61 +43%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $71 −$70 -99%
Will PSG win on 2025-08-13? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-10-19? Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur win on 2025-09-30? Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-12-06? Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-07? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-01-06? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-17? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Kairat Almaty win on 2025-09-18? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-28? Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-11-03? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-08-23? Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-08-31? Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-28? Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-12-10? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 73¢ $1,008 2h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 72¢ $1,008 2h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 2h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 73¢ $3,017 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $21 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $10 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 13h
Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 13h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 79¢ $302 13h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 78¢ $302 13h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 78¢ $302 13h
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 13h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 78¢ $503 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 13h
Will Tommy Fleetwood finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 52¢ $6 13h
Will Collin Morikawa finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 61¢ $5 13h
Will Xander Schauffele finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 40¢ $5 13h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 13h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 21¢ $38 15h
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 88¢ $3 20h
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 20h
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 20h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,016.36 · official $10,016.40 (match) · 2894 history records