Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:26:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a7c…d7b8 weather 487 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,139 (+1%) realized +$1,142 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate71%339W / 140L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day38.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$569now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$246
7 days+$328
14 days+$1,280
30 days+$709
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$967
sports 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +8.8% -1.5% 58% 33% -3.2%
≤30d 342 -1.0% -10.4% 73% 20% -8.4%
≤90d 479 -5.8% -14.8% 71% 21% -8.3%
all 479 -5.8% -14.8% 71% 21% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 21% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 15% -17.1%
15% -30.4% 11% -25.1%
20% -37.2% 9% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$25 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$569
Realized+$1,142
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses339 / 140
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)479 / 487
History coverage58d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 479 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $335 $338 +$3 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 20? No 46¢ 100¢ $50 $110 +$59 (+118%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? Yes 26¢ 44¢ $26 $44 +$18 (+69%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20? No 77¢ 76¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $29 $26 −$3 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 20? Yes 25¢ 6¢ $55 $12 −$43 (-78%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 20? Yes 31¢ 3¢ $30 $2 −$28 (-92%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 20? Yes 20¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 75 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $53 +$80 +151%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $57 +$32 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $12 +$16 +139%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $193 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $114 +$29 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? Jun 19 $68 +$14 +21%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $11 +$8 +77%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$4 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $7 −$6 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $29 +$13 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $38 −$36 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $3 −$2 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $24 −$23 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $56 +$36 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $47 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $26 −$12 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $19 +$111 +598%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $26 −$23 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 +$6 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $17 +$22 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $208 −$8 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $199 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $26 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $181 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $78 +$17 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 +$5 +77%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $11 −$8 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $68 −$63 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $22 −$3 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $24 +$6 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $230 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $88 +$76 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $170 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $68 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $190 +$85 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $202 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $200 +$17 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $74 −$36 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $95 −$84 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$5 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $41 −$8 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$4 +245%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 20? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 23m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 25m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 25m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 40¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 77¢ $38 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? SELL Yes 83¢ $82 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? SELL Yes 81¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 20¢ $13 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 67¢ $62 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 46¢ $52 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $335 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 12h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 41¢ $12 20h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 19? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 19? SELL Yes 96¢ $19 20h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 19? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? SELL No 1¢ $0 20h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $12 20h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $181 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 15¢ $7 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $569.24 · official $567.81 (match) · 2304 history records