Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:27:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a7e…f9ba crypto 128 markets active 5d ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$38 (+1%) realized +$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%55W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day30.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$250
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +35.4% +22.5% 41% 38% -23.4%
≤30d 128 +8.9% -1.5% 43% 40% -20.3%
≤90d 128 +8.9% -1.5% 43% 40% -20.3%
all 128 +8.9% -1.5% 43% 40% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.5% 40% -20.3%
10% ← realistic here -10.9% 30% -27.9%
15% -19.5% 22% -34.9%
20% -27.4% 14% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses55 / 73
Open positions0
Markets (closed)128 / 128
History coverage7d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day30.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 128 Trades
no open positions (54 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $23 −$23 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $63 −$10 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$23 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $63 −$42 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $63 +$14 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $83 −$10 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $105 +$19 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $104 +$23 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $114 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $105 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$62 +583%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $110 −$8 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $105 +$26 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $100 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$21 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $93 +$13 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $68 +$32 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $106 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $105 +$37 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $104 +$44 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $23 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $52 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $140 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $53 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $53 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $60 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $51 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $52 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $71 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $53 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $93 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $73 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $124 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $126 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 252 history records