Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:50:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

5A 0x5a7f…d7a2 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$362 (+5%) realized +$366 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip

Net edge-1%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate70%7W / 3L

Drawdown79%max

Avg bet$664per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$47est.

Kalshi-fit82%portable

Net worth$507now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 101d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)+3.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	10	+14.4%	+3.5%	70%	60%	-4.7%
all	10	+14.4%	+3.5%	70%	60%	-4.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+3.5%	60%	-4.7%
10%	-6.4%	60%	-13.9%
15%	-15.4%	40%	-22.2%
20%	-23.7%	20%	-29.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 36% · top 2 56% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

14% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +14% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$312 vs −$609 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.2 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage

Net worth$507

Realized+$366

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)70%

Wins / losses7 / 3

Est. fees paid−$47

Open positions1

Markets (closed)10 / 11

History coverage101d

Avg bet$664

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown79%

Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 10 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	68¢	68¢	$510	$507	−$4 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Apr 15	$1,000	−$1,000	-100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner	Apr 15	$456	+$142	+31%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner	Apr 15	$620	+$229	+37%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qual	Apr 13	$1,190	−$727	-61%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner	Apr 13	$1,000	+$76	+8%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament	Apr 13	$645	+$787	+122%
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?	Apr 13	$299	+$437	+146%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Apr 13	$1,126	+$435	+39%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament	Apr 07	$100	−$100	-100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Apr 07	$348	+$80	+23%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$515	1h
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner	BUY Anyones Legend	73¢	$529	69d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner	BUY Anyones Legend	73¢	$27	69d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner	BUY Anyones Legend	73¢	$64	69d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner	BUY Anyones Legend	76¢	$202	69d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner	BUY Anyones Legend	76¢	$254	69d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qual	SELL Bilibili Gaming	29¢	$463	70d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qual	BUY Bilibili Gaming	75¢	$1,190	70d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner	BUY Bilibili Gaming	69¢	$1,000	70d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner	SELL Bilibili Gaming	88¢	$111	70d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner	SELL Bilibili Gaming	86¢	$858	70d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner	SELL Bilibili Gaming	85¢	$37	70d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner	SELL Bilibili Gaming	85¢	$70	70d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner	BUY Bilibili Gaming	80¢	$20	70d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner	BUY Bilibili Gaming	80¢	$820	70d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner	BUY Bilibili Gaming	80¢	$160	70d
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament	SELL Yes	99¢	$1,432	70d
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?	SELL Yes	99¢	$737	70d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	SELL No	100¢	$946	70d
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?	BUY Yes	40¢	$299	70d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	SELL No	81¢	$299	70d
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament	BUY Yes	49¢	$317	74d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	SELL No	72¢	$317	74d
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament	BUY Yes	23¢	$100	76d
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament	BUY Yes	41¢	$328	76d
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	SELL Yes	100¢	$428	76d
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	BUY Yes	81¢	$348	78d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	BUY No	64¢	$1,126	100d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $506.52 · official $506.52 (match) · 32 history records