Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:05:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5A 0x5a80…9608 other 219 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$339 (+19%) realized +$351 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate24%41W / 130L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$370now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$283
7 days+$328
14 days+$330
30 days+$313
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$425
sports 15% −$71
world 4% +$61
crypto 4% −$49
politics 2% −$13
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 +15.4% +4.4% 22% 22% +19.7%
≤30d 140 +7.0% -3.2% 22% 22% +14.1%
≤90d 165 +13.5% +2.7% 25% 24% +14.9%
all 171 +10.1% -0.4% 24% 23% +12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.4% 23% +12.0%
10% -9.9% 22% +1.3%
15% -18.6% 20% -8.5%
20% -26.6% 19% -17.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$8 · ×4.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$370
Realized+$351
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses41 / 130
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions45
Markets (closed)171 / 219
History coverage171d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $33 $36 +$3 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+26%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Canada? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 123 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $20 +$97 +473%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $10 +$67 +650%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Iraq? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 22 $10 +$56 +550%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 +$165 +1606%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $6 +$8 +132%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 20 $21 +$58 +282%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 +$81 +786%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 +$20 +197%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Curaçao? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 100¢ $118 2h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 20h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 20h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 20h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 20h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 20h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 20h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $370.44 · official $387.31 · 311 history records