Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:37:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a84…8a3f other 256 markets active 0h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$88 (-0%) realized −$98 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 245L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$19
14 days−$30
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$46
sports 23% −$20
politics 7% −$8
economics 7% −$7
culture 6% −$5
crypto 6% −$5
world 5% −$3
tech 1% −$4
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 76 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 190 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 255 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 245
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)255 / 256
History coverage131d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 255 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $219 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $417 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $179 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $115 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $677 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $809 −$2 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $182 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $135 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $313 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $310 −$2 -1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $337 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $110 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $465 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $282 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $182 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $388 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $356 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $106 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $872 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $172 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $132 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $225 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $186 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $165 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $214 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $369 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $382 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $205 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $360 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $331 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $55 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $224 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $377 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $408 −$2 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 04 $173 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $237 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $116 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 03 $209 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $377 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $121 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $199 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 01 $388 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 22m
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 2h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 11h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 12h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 13h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 14h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 16h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 17h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 20h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 21h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 25h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 27h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $51 29h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $51 30h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 34h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 36h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $51 38h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $51 40h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 40h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 42h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 43h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 44h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $5 44h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $46 47h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.44 · official $50.44 (match) · 1427 history records