Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:33:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a84…959b crypto 264 markets active 4d ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (156 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$473 (-5%) realized −$473 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate53%139W / 125L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day156.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$664
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (156 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -26.9% -33.9% 41% 37% -37.6%
≤30d 264 -11.1% -19.5% 53% 35% -14.7%
≤90d 264 -11.1% -19.5% 53% 35% -14.7%
all 264 -11.1% -19.5% 53% 35% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover156.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.5% 35% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -27.2% 25% -22.9%
15% -34.3% 18% -30.3%
20% -40.7% 13% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$13 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$473
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses139 / 125
Open positions0
Markets (closed)264 / 264
History coverage5d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day156.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 264 Trades
no open positions (88 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $54 −$51 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $42 +$11 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$3 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $47 −$46 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $179 −$26 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $97 +$80 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $38 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $54 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $54 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $42 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $17 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 871 history records