Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:47:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
5A 0x5a86…4075 world 29 markets active 15h ago coverage 462d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate48%14W / 15L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% +$3
other 8% −$2
sports 3% $0
politics 2% +$3
culture 2% $0
tech 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.7% -8.0% 44% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 16 +2.4% -7.4% 31% 6% -9.0%
≤90d 16 +2.4% -7.4% 31% 6% -9.0%
all 29 +8.0% -2.3% 48% 7% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 7% -8.9%
10% -11.6% 7% -17.6%
15% -20.2% 3% -25.5%
20% -28.0% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 63% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.32 per $1 lost it wins $2.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

462d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses14 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage462d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $48 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $16 $0 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $104 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $43 +$3 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $31 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $4 $0 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $45 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $42 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $3 +$1 +25%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $40 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $88 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $27 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $41 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 28 $11 +$1 +4%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 18 $11 +$1 +6%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Apr 16 $13 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 14 $10 −$1 -7%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 29 $2 +$3 +195%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by March 31? Mar 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $14 −$2 -14%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $14 $0 +2%
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election? Mar 15 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 14h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 16h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $47 24h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $48 26h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 28¢ $12 35h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 37h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 37h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $48 38h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $50 40h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $4 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $4 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $2 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $44 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $11 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $32 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 97¢ $48 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $47 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $9 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $7 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 39¢ $1 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $40 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $40 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 34¢ $19 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 34¢ $11 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 34¢ $13 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 34¢ $18 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $44 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 97 history records