Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:29:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5A 0x5a89…3e2a sports 513 markets active 1h ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,034 (-4%) realized −$2,014 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%211W / 300L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$384est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,266
7 days−$6,266
14 days−$6,117
30 days−$6,675
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$2,216
other 16% −$361
world 4% −$170
politics 1% −$13
economics 0% −$158
finance 0% +$28
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -68.2% -71.2% 11% 11% -79.8%
≤30d 71 -38.9% -44.7% 20% 20% -71.2%
≤90d 307 -11.7% -20.1% 40% 39% -17.2%
all 511 -14.5% -22.7% 41% 39% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 39% -14.3%
10% -30.1% 39% -22.5%
15% -36.8% 36% -30.0%
20% -43.0% 32% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$68 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$2,014
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses211 / 300
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$384
Open positions2
Markets (closed)511 / 513
History coverage214d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 511 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 39¢ 34¢ $39 $34 −$6 (-14%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 26¢ $39 $24 −$15 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 251 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $49 −$10 -21%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $95 +$104 +109%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 21 $97 +$161 +165%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $138 +$139 +101%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-03-26? Jun 20 $105 −$105 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playo Jun 20 $192 −$192 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $151 −$151 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $217 −$217 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B Jun 20 $160 −$160 -100%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $369 −$354 -96%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Jun 20 $120 −$120 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Jun 20 $250 −$250 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $149 −$149 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $363 −$363 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $258 −$258 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 20 $168 −$168 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 20 $190 −$190 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $294 −$294 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B Jun 20 $247 −$247 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $123 −$123 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Jun 20 $989 −$399 -40%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $254 −$254 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $230 −$230 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $401 −$401 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5) Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St Jun 20 $325 −$325 -100%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Jun 20 $152 −$152 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $228 −$228 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoff Jun 20 $673 −$673 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Jun 20 $198 −$198 -100%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven Jun 20 $359 −$299 -83%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $128 +$231 +180%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $89 −$87 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $112 +$88 +79%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $51 +$199 +388%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $84 −$82 -98%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $40 −$36 -91%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $34 −$30 -88%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 07 $51 −$34 -67%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $45 +$123 +272%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Draw at halftime? Jun 07 $32 −$32 -98%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester Jun 02 $48 −$48 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 02 $74 −$73 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $26 +$74 +291%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $29 −$29 -100%
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? May 31 $33 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $40 38m
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 39¢ $38 39m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 39¢ $40 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $49 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $200 24h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $258 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $95 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $278 26h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $97 27h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $138 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $360 45h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 35¢ $128 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 27¢ $89 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $200 9d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $26 9d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $32 9d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $32 9d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 55¢ $22 9d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $250 9d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 51¢ $14 9d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 51¢ $5 9d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 51¢ $32 9d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 20¢ $51 9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 37¢ $38 14d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 35¢ $46 14d
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 15d
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $8 15d
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $16 15d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 99¢ $168 15d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 26¢ $45 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.53 · official $57.53 (match) · 1328 history records