Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:13:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

5A 0x5a8d…9a21 sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$66 (+5%) realized −$132 · open +$198

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip

Net edge+24%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$286per market

Trades / day6.9pace

Fees−$12est.

Kalshi-fit80%portable

Net worth$658now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+29.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+42.8%	+29.2%	100%	100%	+21.3%
≤30d	3	+42.8%	+29.2%	100%	100%	+21.3%
≤90d	3	+42.8%	+29.2%	100%	100%	+21.3%
all	3	+42.8%	+29.2%	100%	100%	+21.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+29.2%	100%	+21.3%
10%	+16.8%	67%	+9.7%
15%	+5.5%	67%	-0.9%
20%	-4.8%	33%	-10.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 41% · top 2 79% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +34% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +43% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$106 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$658

Realized−$132

Unrealized+$198

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Est. fees paid−$12

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage2d

Avg bet$286

Trades / day6.9

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	No	77¢	100¢	$432	$560	+$129 (+30%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	No	29¢	100¢	$28	$97	+$69 (+245%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 20	$588	+$130	+22%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	Jun 20	$200	+$122	+61%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 18	$148	+$66	+45%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	29¢	$29	1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL No	77¢	$29	1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	77¢	$467	1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$467	1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	68¢	$322	2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	61¢	$200	3h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	66¢	$200	3h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	68¢	$51	12h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	67¢	$51	12h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	68¢	$214	12h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	68¢	$148	39h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $657.69 · official $657.69 (match) · 13 history records