Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:28:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a93…4bcc other 250 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%8W / 241L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$19
14 days−$32
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$41
sports 23% −$22
politics 9% −$9
culture 8% −$8
crypto 6% −$4
economics 5% −$4
world 3% −$4
tech 1% −$1
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 73 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 179 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 249 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses8 / 241
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)249 / 250
History coverage134d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $356 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $219 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $218 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $227 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $895 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $311 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $584 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $258 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $210 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $149 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $770 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $310 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $781 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 12 $323 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $181 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $189 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $262 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $210 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $193 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $376 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $455 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $226 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $142 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $129 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $500 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $207 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $587 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $720 −$2 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $565 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $284 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $324 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $145 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $259 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $499 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $126 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $440 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $264 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $361 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 04 $934 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $799 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $291 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $613 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $234 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 1h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 5h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 7h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 11h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 12h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 15h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 16h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 17h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 18h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $56 20h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $57 22h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $57 23h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $57 25h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $57 39h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $57 41h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $57 42h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $57 43h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $57 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $57 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.01 · official $56.01 (match) · 1416 history records