Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:12:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a99…7171 weather 113 markets active 3h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$34 (-3%) realized −$43 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate55%59W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day20.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days−$4
14 days−$47
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 87% +$7
other 6% −$22
crypto 5% −$9
sports 1% +$2
tech 1% −$5
world 0% −$5
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-36.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -14.8% -22.9% 69% 36% -10.0%
≤30d 108 -29.7% -36.4% 55% 29% -13.9%
≤90d 108 -29.7% -36.4% 55% 29% -13.9%
all 108 -29.7% -36.4% 55% 29% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.4% 29% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -42.5% 15% -22.1%
15% -48.1% 8% -29.7%
20% -53.2% 2% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses59 / 49
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)108 / 113
History coverage8d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day20.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? No 86¢ 96¢ $29 $33 +$3 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 20? No 86¢ 92¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 20? No 90¢ 96¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? No 71¢ 90¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+27%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 20? No 89¢ 96¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 20? Jun 20 $31 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $9 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $41 +$8 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $33 +$8 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $29 +$10 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $31 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $56 +$3 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $46 −$44 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $35 +$15 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $44 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $29 +$11 +37%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $27 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $27 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $28 +$12 +41%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +46%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$11 +21%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$2 +24%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $27 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 −$11 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$3 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $30 −$1 -5%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$7 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 86¢ $29 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $35 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 89¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? SELL No 64¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 20? BUY No 88¢ $31 18h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 20? BUY No 90¢ $18 19h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $49 19h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 20? BUY No 86¢ $20 20h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 71¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 73¢ $9 20h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 71¢ $9 20h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $41 20h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 79¢ $33 42h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? BUY No 82¢ $41 42h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $16 42h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $5 42h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $19 42h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $33 45h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $16 47h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $14 47h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 72¢ $29 47h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 90¢ $59 47h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 87¢ $18 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $39 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? SELL No 4¢ $2 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $46 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 69¢ $35 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $49 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $39 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.87 · official $95.73 (match) · 239 history records