Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5A 0x5a99…d29f sports 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized −$42 · open +$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%17W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day23.9pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$311now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$29
other 13% +$199
crypto 12% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +5.2% -4.8% 44% 44% -8.0%
≤30d 39 +5.2% -4.8% 44% 44% -8.0%
≤90d 39 +5.2% -4.8% 44% 44% -8.0%
all 39 +5.2% -4.8% 44% 44% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.8% 44% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -13.9% 41% -16.8%
15% -22.2% 36% -24.9%
20% -29.9% 26% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$36 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$311
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$49
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses17 / 22
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage4d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day23.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Bucharest: Ilinca Sagmar vs Laura Brunkel Ilinca Sagmar 58¢ 81¢ $164 $230 +$66 (+40%)
ITF Klosters: Dune Vaissaud vs Josephine Kunz Dune Vaissaud 57¢ 48¢ $98 $81 −$17 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Kayseri: Ustiniya Lekomtseva vs Semra Aksu Jun 17 $20 +$83 +406%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $178 +$133 +75%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $69 +$29 +43%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $96 −$95 -99%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -19%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $149 +$67 +45%
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Lucas Poullain Jun 16 $62 −$61 -98%
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur Jun 16 $101 +$62 +61%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $75 +$75 +100%
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge Jun 16 $79 +$103 +131%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $99 −$4 -4%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $51 +$26 +51%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $67 −$39 -57%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $120 −$45 -38%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $33 +$114 +346%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $121 −$69 -57%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $46 +$16 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $35 −$19 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$7 +28%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu Jun 16 $197 −$141 -72%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $159 −$71 -45%
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 16 $50 −$7 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $36 +$17 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$7 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$18 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$7 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef Jun 13 $13 −$13 -99%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $83 −$70 -84%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo Jun 13 $49 +$34 +71%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel Jun 13 $26 +$22 +86%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $18 +$8 +41%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 13 $53 −$34 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Klosters: Dune Vaissaud vs Josephine Kunz BUY Dune Vaissaud 57¢ $99 48m
ITF Bucharest: Ilinca Sagmar vs Laura Brunkel BUY Ilinca Sagmar 58¢ $166 1h
ITF Kayseri: Ustiniya Lekomtseva vs Semra Aksu SELL Semra Aksu 99¢ $104 1h
ITF Kayseri: Ustiniya Lekomtseva vs Semra Aksu BUY Semra Aksu 19¢ $20 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 95¢ $311 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $49 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $129 3h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 76¢ $49 11h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Samuel Heredia 57¢ $80 11h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 11h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 11h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 57¢ $19 11h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Samuel Heredia 49¢ $16 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $216 12h
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Lucas Poullain BUY Lucas Poullain 46¢ $62 17h
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur SELL Clement Tabur 99¢ $163 17h
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur BUY Clement Tabur 61¢ $101 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $49 18h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 99¢ $150 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 19h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 50¢ $51 19h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 46¢ $24 19h
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge SELL Elena Micic 85¢ $181 19h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny SELL Alan Wazny 35¢ $95 19h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Alan Wazny 35¢ $99 19h
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge BUY Elena Micic 42¢ $2 19h
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge BUY Elena Micic 36¢ $76 20h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Adrian Mannarino 99¢ $76 20h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 65¢ $51 20h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Tallon Griekspoor 16¢ $29 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $311.36 · official $307.38 · 95 history records