Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:07:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a9a…dbd8 other 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-0%) realized −$32 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate35%27W / 50L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$18
world 18% −$7
sports 15% −$2
other 11% −$2
tech 2% −$3
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.3% -8.3% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 14 -2.6% -11.9% 29% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 26 -5.5% -14.5% 27% 4% -9.8%
all 77 -3.8% -12.9% 35% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 1% -9.9%
10% -21.3% 0% -18.5%
15% -28.9% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized−$32
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses27 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage450d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 81¢ $145 $144 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $162 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $305 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $110 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $24 +$2 +8%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $145 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $158 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $143 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $89 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $135 +$9 +7%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $29 −$11 -39%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $50 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $195 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $90 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $65 −$7 -10%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $146 −$3 -2%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $128 $0 +0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 26 $122 −$6 -5%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 25 $28 −$4 -14%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $232 −$2 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $132 +$1 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 19 $9 +$1 +13%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $969 −$1 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $971 −$2 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $972 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $972 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $978 −$1 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 17 $6 −$1 -23%
Jonas Valančiūnas: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Mar 16 $178 +$1 +1%
Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Mar 15 $104 −$3 -3%
Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 8.5 Mar 14 $6 $0 -6%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Jan 02 $4 −$1 -16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $8 $0 +3%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 20 $1 −$1 -72%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 19 $12 $0 +1%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 30 $3 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 29 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $17 $0 +2%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 15 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in US? Aug 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August? Aug 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 245–259 times August 8–August 15? Aug 11 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $145 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $160 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $160 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $66 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $80 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $145 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $17 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $16 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $160 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $160 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $110 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $110 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $15 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $22 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $57 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $66 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $145 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $145 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $145 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $158 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $158 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $143 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.24 · official $146.25 (match) · 239 history records