Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:37:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5A 0x5a9a…cd1c crypto 167 markets active 1h ago coverage 604d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$207 (+1%) realized +$215 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate86%139W / 22L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$836now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$9
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% +$83
other 15% +$33
politics 15% +$5
world 12% +$59
weather 11% +$12
tech 4% −$5
finance 3% +$6
economics 1% +$2
sports 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 18 +1.2% -8.5% 100% 0% -7.2%
≤90d 48 +0.6% -9.0% 94% 2% -9.0%
all 161 -2.0% -11.4% 86% 4% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 4% -8.5%
10% -19.9% 2% -17.3%
15% -27.6% 2% -25.3%
20% -34.7% 1% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.06 per $1 lost it wins $3.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage
Net worth$836
Realized+$215
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses139 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)161 / 167
History coverage604d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Syria sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? No 99¢ 99¢ $255 $256 +$0 (+0%)
Will JPMorgan Chase fail by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $199 $199 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30? No 99¢ 98¢ $179 $177 −$2 (-1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 46¢ 40¢ $54 $48 −$6 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $169 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 10? Jun 11 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C or higher on June 9? Jun 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 9? Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 8°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 7°C on June 9? Jun 09 $98 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $54 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $32 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $44 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $124 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $80 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $633 +$48 +8%
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026? May 13 $99 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or higher on May 3? May 03 $63 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on May 2? May 02 $35 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? May 01 $49 +$1 +2%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? May 01 $50 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $90 +$3 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? May 01 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? May 01 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? May 01 $151 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 8°C or below on April 23? Apr 23 $183 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C or below on April 22? Apr 21 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 21 Apr 21 $101 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 21? Apr 21 $80 $0 +0%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Apr 20 $181 $0 +0%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu Apr 17 $150 −$60 -40%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Apr 14 $88 +$2 +2%
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Apr 14 $116 +$4 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June? Apr 13 $50 +$2 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Apr 12 $71 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 01 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Canada strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $50 +$1 +1%
Will BNB dip to $300 in March? Apr 01 $50 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $60-$65 in March? Apr 01 $50 +$1 +2%
XRP all time high by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $63 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $95 +$2 +2%
Will Solana dip to $20 in March? Apr 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 31 $119 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March? Mar 23 $300 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,000 in March? Mar 23 $5 $0 -6%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $600 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February? Mar 03 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $179 1h
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $58 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will JPMorgan Chase fail by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $199 1h
Will Syria sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY No 99¢ $255 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $169 10d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $49 10d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $59 10d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $199 10d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $110 10d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $199 10d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C or higher on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $33 11d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $124 11d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $50 11d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C or higher on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $100 11d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $80 11d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $54 11d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $20 11d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $40 11d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 9? BUY No 98¢ $44 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $25 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 9? BUY No 98¢ $7 11d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 8°C on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $10 11d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C or higher on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $100 11d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 7°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $98 11d
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $24 41d
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 41d
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $25 41d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 93¢ $133 49d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 93¢ $500 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $836.35 · official $836.44 (match) · 755 history records