Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:19:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a9a…5f43 politics 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,535 (+5%) realized +$3,452 · open +$83
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate83%29W / 6L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$1,925per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,637now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days+$99
14 days−$337
30 days−$187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 72% +$3,662
world 14% +$249
other 9% −$383
economics 3% +$10
sports 2% +$63
finance 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +6.6% -3.6% 100% 0% -3.8%
≤30d 7 -10.0% -18.6% 86% 0% -12.5%
≤90d 21 -2.9% -12.2% 86% 14% -1.6%
all 35 -2.1% -11.5% 83% 9% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 9% -4.8%
10% -19.9% 3% -13.9%
15% -27.7% 3% -22.2%
20% -34.8% 0% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$2,003) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$157 vs −$204 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.47 per $1 lost it wins $4.47
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$1,637
Realized+$3,452
Unrealized+$83
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses29 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage138d
Avg bet$1,925
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 84¢ 88¢ $1,554 $1,637 +$83 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $1,410 +$88 +6%
Will SpaceX list on the NASDAQ? Jun 12 $156 +$11 +7%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 04 $712 +$18 +2%
Will Huh Tae-jung win the 2026 Daejeon mayoral election? Jun 04 $478 +$22 +5%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $477 −$476 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 01 $987 +$3 +0%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? Jun 01 $1,553 +$147 +10%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 18 $1,524 +$63 +4%
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30? Apr 21 $342 +$7 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $1,086 +$48 +4%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 19 $1,900 +$85 +4%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 19 $1,457 +$548 +38%
Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary elect Apr 19 $1,990 +$85 +4%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 17 $8,510 +$386 +4%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 13 $940 +$10 +1%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $12,651 +$1,710 +14%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Apr 08 $5,780 +$1,229 +21%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 03 $2,002 +$11 +0%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 03 $170 −$98 -58%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 03 $4 −$1 -32%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? Mar 21 $401 +$1 +0%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026? Mar 05 $2,824 +$3 +0%
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? Feb 25 $78 +$1 +1%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 25 $469 +$14 +3%
Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win between 200 and 249 se Feb 14 $4,755 +$5 +0%
Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh Feb 13 $4,741 +$14 +0%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party loose any seats in Japanese snap ele Feb 09 $1,570 +$24 +2%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the Feb 07 $311 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win fewer than 190 seats in the 2026 Feb 07 $302 +$1 +0%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win between 190 and 204 seats in the Feb 07 $4 $0 +1%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 04 $128 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of February? Feb 03 $2,003 −$434 -22%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 31 $2,011 −$8 -0%
U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31? Jan 31 $2,009 +$2 +0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Jan 31 $1,999 +$10 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $1,554 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,498 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,410 2d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes $1 13d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 95¢ $187 14d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 95¢ $290 14d
Will Huh Tae-jung win the 2026 Daejeon mayoral election? BUY Yes 96¢ $98 14d
Will Huh Tae-jung win the 2026 Daejeon mayoral election? BUY Yes 96¢ $66 14d
Will Huh Tae-jung win the 2026 Daejeon mayoral election? BUY Yes 96¢ $120 14d
Will Huh Tae-jung win the 2026 Daejeon mayoral election? BUY Yes 96¢ $74 14d
Will Huh Tae-jung win the 2026 Daejeon mayoral election? BUY Yes 96¢ $120 14d
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? BUY Yes 98¢ $712 14d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian SELL Yes 99¢ $990 15d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 99¢ $767 15d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 99¢ $13 15d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 99¢ $207 15d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? BUY No 91¢ $1,553 30d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 97¢ $38 56d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 96¢ $26 56d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 96¢ $36 56d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 96¢ $192 56d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,232 56d
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $169 57d
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $180 57d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $802 57d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $332 57d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,086 57d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun SELL Yes 83¢ $129 58d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun SELL Yes 83¢ $941 58d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun SELL Yes 83¢ $15 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,637.25 · official $1,637.25 (match) · 349 history records