Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:28:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a9c…9290 crypto 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$132 (-10%) realized −$159 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%28W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$86
7 days−$149
14 days−$142
30 days−$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$47
other 29% −$141
sports 5% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -14.1% -22.3% 43% 43% -35.8%
≤30d 62 -13.2% -21.4% 45% 44% -23.1%
≤90d 62 -13.2% -21.4% 45% 44% -23.1%
all 62 -13.2% -21.4% 45% 44% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 44% -23.1%
10% -29.0% 40% -30.5%
15% -35.8% 39% -37.2%
20% -42.1% 31% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$18 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized−$159
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses28 / 34
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage18d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 78¢ $77 $105 +$27 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$24 +463%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $56 +$29 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $46 −$45 -99%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $56 −$55 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $36 +$15 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 -4%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters G Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$12 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $25 +$24 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$6 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$13 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $5 +$4 +81%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 01 $14 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 01 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 01 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 01 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 01 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 01 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 01 $10 +$17 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 01 $26 −$19 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 01 $25 +$12 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 01 $26 +$32 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 01 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 01 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 01 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 01 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $78 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 47¢ $29 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $85 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $56 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $46 47h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $56 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $50 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $36 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $38 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $49 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.87 · official $104.87 (match) · 147 history records