Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:01:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5A 0x5a9d…3c03 crypto 141 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$27 (-1%) realized −$26 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%62W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$71est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$219now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$49
crypto 41% +$1
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 59 -60.5% -64.3% 24% 22% -24.8%
all 136 -4.7% -13.8% 46% 45% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 45% -10.6%
10% -22.0% 42% -19.1%
15% -29.6% 40% -26.9%
20% -36.5% 38% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$21 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$219
Realized−$26
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses62 / 74
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions5
Markets (closed)136 / 141
History coverage104d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 74¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 Over 53¢ 55¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 15 $21 +$18 +88%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Arthur Rinderknech vs Karen Khachanov Apr 06 $62 +$26 +42%
Hurricanes vs. Senators Apr 06 $40 +$47 +117%
Blues vs. Avalanche Apr 06 $31 +$55 +178%
Grizzlies vs. Bucks Apr 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Raptors vs. Celtics Apr 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Suns vs. Bulls Apr 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Menorca: Daniel Rincon vs Frederico Ferreira Silva Apr 01 $156 −$156 -100%
Copa Colsanitas: Despina Papamichail vs Darja Semenistaja Apr 01 $83 −$47 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 01 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 01 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 01 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 01 $26 −$26 -100%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Henrique Rocha vs Marco Trungelliti Apr 01 $183 +$33 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 01 $72 −$72 -100%
Bucharest Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Alex Molcan Apr 01 $207 −$205 -99%
Menorca: Norbert Gombos vs Ivan Gakhov Apr 01 $116 +$28 +24%
Bucharest Open: Nuno Borges vs Damir Dzumhur Apr 01 $145 +$60 +41%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Corentin Moutet vs Taha Baadi Apr 01 $9 −$9 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $41 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $50 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $39 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 67d
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Arthur Rinderknech vs Karen Khachanov SELL Arthur Rinderknech 44¢ $88 76d
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Arthur Rinderknech vs Karen Khachanov BUY Arthur Rinderknech 31¢ $3 76d
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Arthur Rinderknech vs Karen Khachanov BUY Arthur Rinderknech 31¢ $9 76d
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Arthur Rinderknech vs Karen Khachanov BUY Arthur Rinderknech 31¢ $2 76d
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Arthur Rinderknech vs Karen Khachanov BUY Arthur Rinderknech 31¢ $12 76d
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Arthur Rinderknech vs Karen Khachanov BUY Arthur Rinderknech 31¢ $2 76d
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Arthur Rinderknech vs Karen Khachanov BUY Arthur Rinderknech 31¢ $33 76d
Blues vs. Avalanche BUY Blues 36¢ $31 77d
Hurricanes vs. Senators BUY Senators 46¢ $40 77d
Grizzlies vs. Bucks BUY Grizzlies 29¢ $20 77d
Raptors vs. Celtics BUY Raptors 21¢ $20 77d
Suns vs. Bulls BUY Bulls 17¢ $20 77d
Menorca: Daniel Rincon vs Frederico Ferreira Silva BUY Frederico Ferreira Silva 52¢ $153 81d
Menorca: Daniel Rincon vs Frederico Ferreira Silva BUY Frederico Ferreira Silva 52¢ $3 81d
Copa Colsanitas: Despina Papamichail vs Darja Semenistaja SELL Despina Papamichail 9¢ $36 81d
Copa Colsanitas: Despina Papamichail vs Darja Semenistaja BUY Despina Papamichail 21¢ $0 81d
Copa Colsanitas: Despina Papamichail vs Darja Semenistaja BUY Despina Papamichail 21¢ $55 81d
Copa Colsanitas: Despina Papamichail vs Darja Semenistaja BUY Despina Papamichail 21¢ $1 81d
Copa Colsanitas: Despina Papamichail vs Darja Semenistaja BUY Despina Papamichail 21¢ $1 81d
Copa Colsanitas: Despina Papamichail vs Darja Semenistaja BUY Despina Papamichail 20¢ $26 81d
Bucharest Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Alex Molcan BUY Gabriel Diallo 69¢ $207 81d
Menorca: Norbert Gombos vs Ivan Gakhov SELL Ivan Gakhov 36¢ $66 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $218.80 · official $218.80 (match) · 548 history records