Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:40:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5aa0…0d40 crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$25 (-19%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -11.0% -19.4% 56% 44% -31.4%
≤30d 9 -11.0% -19.4% 56% 44% -31.4%
≤90d 9 -11.0% -19.4% 56% 44% -31.4%
all 9 -11.0% -19.4% 56% 44% -31.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 44% -31.4%
10% -27.1% 33% -38.0%
15% -34.2% 33% -44.0%
20% -40.6% 11% -49.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$21 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$50 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records