Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:06:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5aa3…a630 crypto 7 markets active 5d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$9 (-54%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$6
crypto 37% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-60.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -56.2% -60.3% 29% 14% -62.5%
≤30d 7 -56.2% -60.3% 29% 14% -62.5%
≤90d 7 -56.2% -60.3% 29% 14% -62.5%
all 7 -56.2% -60.3% 29% 14% -62.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.3% 14% -62.5%
10% -64.1% 0% -66.1%
15% -67.6% 0% -69.4%
20% -70.8% 0% -72.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -59% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records