Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5aa3…88fd sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$171 (-27%) realized −$171 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate26%5W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$80
14 days−$80
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% −$123
sports 33% −$116
other 12% −$4
world 8% −$25
politics 5% +$81
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +3.6% -6.2% 29% 21% -31.9%
≤30d 17 +13.8% +3.0% 29% 24% -14.5%
≤90d 19 +6.1% -4.0% 26% 21% -37.1%
all 19 +6.1% -4.0% 26% 21% -37.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 21% -37.1%
10% -13.2% 16% -43.1%
15% -21.6% 11% -48.6%
20% -29.3% 11% -53.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$23 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$171
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses5 / 14
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage32d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 +$27 +874%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 −$3 -84%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? Jun 19 $1 $0 +12%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$71 -70%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 19 $103 +$31 +30%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $34 +$81 +235%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $50 −$25 -51%
Will SpaceX list on the NASDAQ? May 26 $10 $0 -1%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $40 −$7 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 21 $154 −$154 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $4 2d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 64¢ $29 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? SELL No 94¢ $1 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $31 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL No 75¢ $135 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY No 83¢ $1 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 13d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY No 55¢ $103 13d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 29¢ $34 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $25 26d
Will SpaceX list on the NASDAQ? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 26d
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY T1 91¢ $30 32d
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Kiwoom DRX 10¢ $10 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $50 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.15 · official $33.15 (match) · 40 history records