Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:19:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5aa4…16e3 sports 537 markets active 0h ago coverage 91d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 90d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$14,633 (-11%) realized −$14,577 · open −$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%235W / 301L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Fees−$1,177est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$432now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$95
7 days−$94
14 days−$3,577
30 days−$2,405
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$4,191
crypto 15% −$2,899
other 1% −$1,888
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +51.5% +37.1% 33% 33% -98.8%
≤30d 209 -2.6% -11.9% 43% 43% -14.8%
≤90d 532 -5.6% -14.6% 43% 43% -16.3%
all 536 -5.0% -14.0% 44% 43% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 43% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 43% -23.9%
15% -29.8% 41% -31.3%
20% -36.7% 38% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$222 vs −$204 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$432
Realized−$14,577
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses235 / 301
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$1,177
Open positions2
Markets (closed)536 / 537
History coverage91d ⚠
Avg bet$244
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 536 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner 9z 48¢ 72¢ $288 $432 +$144 (+50%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BetBoom Team 40¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 154 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will BetBoom qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +354%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $287 −$285 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $296 −$8 -3%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $32 −$32 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $60 +$40 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $124 +$129 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $104 −$104 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $35 −$34 -98%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $41 −$6 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $66 −$65 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$65 +3021%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $570 −$558 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 10 $494 −$202 -41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $196 −$196 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 10 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 10 $147 −$147 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $270 −$269 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 10 $192 −$189 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 10 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 10 $106 −$106 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $312 +$397 +127%
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $101 −$97 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $96 +$104 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$6 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $200 +$200 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $240 −$240 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 10 $98 +$102 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 10 $147 +$153 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 10 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $151 −$149 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $102 +$98 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 10 $147 +$153 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 10 $138 −$138 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 10 $201 +$193 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 10 $86 +$114 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 10 $208 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 10 $147 −$147 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $151 −$151 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 10 $116 −$114 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 10 $141 +$159 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 10 $118 +$122 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 48¢ $139 16m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 48¢ $1 16m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 48¢ $148 16m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $204 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 25h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 70¢ $287 7d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 54¢ $288 7d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 51¢ $32 7d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 54¢ $296 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $60 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $6 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $54 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $15 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $19 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $8 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $27 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $432.24 · official $432.24 (match) · 3500 history records