Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:45:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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5A 0x5aaa…ee53 crypto 306 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$176 (+3%) realized +$192 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%147W / 154L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day67.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$11
14 days−$12
30 days+$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$110
sports 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -8.2% -17.0% 63% 53% -19.4%
≤30d 301 +0.2% -9.4% 49% 48% -8.0%
≤90d 301 +0.2% -9.4% 49% 48% -8.0%
all 301 +0.2% -9.4% 49% 48% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 48% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 44% -16.8%
15% -26.0% 39% -24.8%
20% -33.2% 33% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$14 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$192
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses147 / 154
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)301 / 306
History coverage30d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day67.9
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 301 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Under 64¢ 46¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Under 83¢ 50¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-40%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Under 38¢ 16¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-57%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Under 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Under 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$3 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 −$4 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 07 $7 +$10 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 07 $7 +$22 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 07 $15 +$14 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$58 +3021%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 05 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 05 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 31 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 31 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 30 $40 −$14 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 30 $14 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 30 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 30 $51 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 30 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 30 $18 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 30 $14 +$19 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 30 $7 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 30 $7 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 30 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 30 $18 +$11 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 30 $14 +$11 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 7m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 6¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 26m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 11¢ $5 27m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $5 27m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $5 29m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 38m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 BUY Under 83¢ $5 39m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.05 · official $21.28 · 2280 history records