Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:28:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5A 0x5aac…8d2a other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$23 (+23%) realized +$20 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +48.2% +34.1% 100% 100% +34.6%
≤30d 3 +48.2% +34.1% 100% 100% +34.6%
≤90d 3 +48.2% +34.1% 100% 100% +34.6%
all 3 +48.2% +34.1% 100% 100% +34.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.1% 100% +34.6%
10% +21.3% 100% +21.8%
15% +9.6% 100% +10.0%
20% -1.2% 33% -0.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage6d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 92¢ 98¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $27 +$14 +51%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $19 +$9 +49%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $14 +$6 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $40 50m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $27 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $19 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $14 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.58 · official $42.75 (match) · 7 history records