Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:42:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5A 0x5ab3…3b2f sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$901 (+91%) realized +$900 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +128% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +106% what you keep after slip
Net edge+106%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%5W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$129
30 days+$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$884
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+106.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +59.8% +44.6% 100% 100% +46.0%
≤90d 5 +127.9% +106.2% 100% 100% +88.0%
all 5 +127.9% +106.2% 100% 100% +88.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +106.2% 100% +88.0%
10% +86.5% 80% +70.0%
15% +68.5% 80% +53.6%
20% +51.9% 80% +38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +108% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +128% · $-wt +108% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$177 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$166
Realized+$900
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses5 / 0
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage62d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Philadelphia Phillies 59¢ 60¢ $165 $166 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $192 +$129 +67%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros Jun 01 $126 +$66 +52%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $205 +$339 +165%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 13 $201 +$22 +11%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 26 $95 +$327 +344%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 59¢ $167 2h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 59¢ $192 11d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros BUY Milwaukee Brewers 65¢ $126 23d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche BUY Golden Knights 37¢ $205 34d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 90¢ $201 46d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 22¢ $95 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.40 · official $166.40 (match) · 11 history records