Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:08:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5A 0x5ab3…43ab crypto 432 markets active 2h ago coverage 61d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4,737 (+1%) realized +$4,461 · open +$276
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate91%386W / 39L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$1,199per market
Trades / day54.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$11,145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 61d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,129
other 0% −$6
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +0.5% -9.0% 90% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 177 -0.6% -10.1% 87% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 425 +0.2% -9.3% 91% 0% -9.2%
all 425 +0.2% -9.3% 91% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 0% -9.2%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.9%
15% ← realistic here -25.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$1,731) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$86 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$11,145
Realized+$4,461
Unrealized+$276
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses386 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)425 / 432
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$1,199
Trades / day54.3
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 425 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 22-28? No 94¢ 99¢ $5,414 $5,695 +$282 (+5%)
Will Solana dip to $60 June 22-28? No 97¢ 97¢ $2,856 $2,853 −$2 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? No 98¢ 97¢ $962 $954 −$8 (-1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 22-28? No 98¢ 98¢ $597 $597 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 27? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $518 $522 +$4 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 22-28? No 99¢ 99¢ $514 $514 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? Jun 26 $523 −$4 -1%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 26? Jun 26 $1,455 −$148 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $1,491 +$8 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 22-28? Jun 26 $1,607 +$18 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $1,731 +$10 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 25? Jun 26 $2,220 +$15 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 25? Jun 25 $749 −$26 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $3,662 +$62 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 25? Jun 25 $1,158 +$16 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $468 +$9 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $1,942 +$57 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 24? Jun 24 $2,337 +$33 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $3,057 +$43 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? Jun 24 $2,985 +$49 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 23? Jun 24 $482 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? Jun 23 $2,323 +$26 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 23? Jun 23 $809 +$17 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 23? Jun 23 $3,341 +$48 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $944 −$12 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 23? Jun 23 $678 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $2,974 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $289 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 22? Jun 23 $597 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $9,551 +$36 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $297 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 22? Jun 22 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $2,362 +$18 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $775 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $2,948 +$23 +1%
Will Solana dip to $60 June 15-21? Jun 21 $3,054 +$33 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 21? Jun 21 $1,087 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $1,337 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $1,270 +$8 +1%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 20? Jun 21 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 20? Jun 20 $1,211 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 20? Jun 20 $658 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $1,303 +$30 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $1,859 +$18 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 19? Jun 20 $1,222 +$12 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $29 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1,679 +$20 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 19? Jun 19 $4,920 +$55 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? Jun 19 $1,605 +$38 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? Jun 19 $2,501 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,817 +$15 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? Jun 18 $8,486 −$25 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $124 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 17? Jun 17 $3,133 +$54 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $1,706 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $2,265 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 27? BUY Yes 98¢ $519 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? SELL No 98¢ $518 1h
Will Solana dip to $60 June 22-28? BUY No 98¢ $1,122 1h
Will Solana dip to $60 June 22-28? BUY No 98¢ $489 1h
Will Solana reach $75 on June 26? SELL No 88¢ $1,307 1h
Will Solana dip to $60 June 22-28? BUY No 96¢ $1,251 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $1,498 2h
Will Solana reach $75 on June 26? BUY No 97¢ $1,455 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $1,491 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $482 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $482 10h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? BUY No 99¢ $523 11h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 22-28? BUY No 99¢ $514 11h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 22-28? BUY No 98¢ $597 11h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 22-28? SELL No 100¢ $1,625 11h
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $1,636 14h
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $332 14h
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $267 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $490 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $500 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $262 23h
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $1,625 25h
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $595 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $487 25h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 25? SELL Yes 96¢ $15 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $487 25h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 25? SELL Yes 96¢ $708 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $496 26h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $10 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $157 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,145.32 · official $11,145.32 (match) · 3500 history records