Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:20:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5aba…9ddf crypto 1353 markets active 2h ago coverage 139d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 138d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$286 (-1%) realized −$259 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate55%741W / 597L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$49
14 days+$62
30 days+$209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% +$117
crypto 12% −$264
other 7% +$57
sports 5% +$26
politics 1% +$1
tech 0% +$3
finance 0% +$14
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -8.3% -17.0% 66% 27% +3.9%
≤30d 232 -5.1% -14.1% 59% 27% +0.5%
≤90d 720 -11.6% -20.0% 52% 31% -8.3%
all 1338 -8.8% -17.5% 55% 31% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 31% -9.6%
10% -25.4% 22% -18.2%
15% -32.6% 16% -26.1%
20% -39.2% 12% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized−$259
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses741 / 597
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions15
Markets (closed)1338 / 1353
History coverage139d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 1338 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? No 97¢ 97¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 38¢ 56¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+46%)
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $11 $6 −$5 (-45%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 31¢ 14¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-56%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $21 $1 −$20 (-95%)
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay No 81¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 21¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-93%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 142 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $7 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +4%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $10 +$2 +20%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $23 −$10 -42%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $50 +$22 +44%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $3 +$7 +226%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $15 +$4 +29%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$3 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +23%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$2 -50%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +9%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 97¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 23h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $1 23h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.90 · official $200.17 (match) · 3500 history records