Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:25:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5ac1…df98 sports 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,184 (-7%) realized −$1,015 · open −$169
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate57%21W / 16L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$427per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$183est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$166
7 days−$1,559
14 days−$1,278
30 days−$1,278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$1,108
crypto 5% −$338
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -9.9% -18.4% 52% 52% -21.6%
≤30d 37 +2.9% -6.9% 57% 54% -16.7%
≤90d 37 +2.9% -6.9% 57% 54% -16.7%
all 37 +2.9% -6.9% 57% 54% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 54% -16.7%
10% -15.8% 49% -24.6%
15% -24.0% 43% -31.9%
20% -31.4% 41% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$612) neutral
Persistence
early +18% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$269 vs −$433 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$1,015
Unrealized−$169
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses21 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$183
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage8d
Avg bet$427
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Walczaki 52¢ 52¢ $123 $122 −$1 (-1%)
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs GLYPH 57¢ 0¢ $168 $0 −$168 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 21 $312 −$307 -99%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $171 +$141 +82%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $157 −$156 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 19 $110 −$109 -98%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $2,023 −$2,000 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $1,350 +$783 +58%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $1,008 +$342 +34%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $814 −$805 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $1,035 +$787 +76%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $670 +$365 +54%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $575 +$95 +16%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $292 +$283 +97%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 17 $469 −$462 -98%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $203 +$205 +101%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $210 −$207 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $264 +$209 +79%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $306 −$301 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $750 −$741 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $404 +$347 +86%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $145 +$258 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $131 +$15 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $156 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $227 −$150 -66%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $789 −$316 -40%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $612 +$177 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$19 +38%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $509 +$681 +134%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $599 +$326 +54%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $346 +$252 +73%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $160 +$186 +116%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $72 +$88 +121%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $150 −$147 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $63 +$87 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $99 −$36 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $60 +$3 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 52¢ $125 2h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 56¢ $34 3h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 57¢ $136 3h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 100 Thieves 53¢ $312 23h
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner SELL ex-RUBY 100¢ $312 23h
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 54¢ $171 23h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 73¢ $157 2d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY Sashi Esport 51¢ $110 3d
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Team Nemesis 62¢ $2,023 3d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $2,133 3d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 59¢ $3 3d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 63¢ $1,347 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $1,350 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 64¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 64¢ $813 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $1,008 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $1,822 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $1,032 4d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Team Resilience 100¢ $1,035 4d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 64¢ $1 4d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 64¢ $669 4d
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE - Map 2 Winner SELL ROSE 100¢ $670 4d
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE - Map 2 Winner BUY ROSE 85¢ $575 4d
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 2 Winner SELL Evil Geniuses Academy 100¢ $575 4d
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 50¢ $292 4d
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 52¢ $1 4d
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 50¢ $468 4d
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Evictix 100¢ $408 4d
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Evictix 47¢ $210 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.20 · official $122.20 (match) · 77 history records