Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:01:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5ac1…513a sports 471 markets active 1h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,913 (-5%) realized −$1,915 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate68%321W / 149L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$28
14 days+$30
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$568
other 9% −$1,313
finance 3% +$29
culture 1% −$48
crypto 1% +$7
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +5.9% -4.2% 82% 55% -0.0%
≤30d 75 -4.7% -13.8% 71% 48% -11.9%
≤90d 342 -5.8% -14.8% 72% 44% -13.4%
all 470 -7.3% -16.1% 68% 41% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 41% -14.2%
10% -24.1% 24% -22.4%
15% -31.5% 15% -29.9%
20% -38.2% 9% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$37 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$1,915
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses321 / 149
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions1
Markets (closed)470 / 471
History coverage241d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 470 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner T1 92¢ 100¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $78 +$22 +28%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $98 +$7 +7%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $3 +$2 +67%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4 +$1 +36%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $7 +$3 +43%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3 +$2 +59%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $48 +$2 +5%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $9 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $5 $0 +8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $52 −$2 -3%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $7 +$3 +35%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $27 +$3 +11%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $82 +$3 +4%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $12 +$3 +25%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $89 +$6 +7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $51 $0 -1%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $8 +$2 +23%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $4 +$1 +36%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $3 +$2 +92%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $7 +$3 +44%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $12 $0 -3%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $48 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $57 −$4 -7%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $23 +$27 +114%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $4 $0 +11%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $3 +$2 +56%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $8 +$2 +28%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $6 +$4 +54%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $8 +$2 +21%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $16 +$4 +27%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $8 +$2 +32%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $10 $0 +4%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $5 +$5 +100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $10 $0 +4%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $14 +$6 +41%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $106 +$2 +2%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $19 +$6 +29%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $19 +$6 +34%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $34 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 92¢ $18 55m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $100 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 44¢ $4 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 47¢ $7 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 79¢ $20 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 95¢ $24 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 92¢ $14 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 92¢ $9 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $105 2h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 98¢ $54 2h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 95¢ $19 2h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 83¢ $12 2h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 85¢ $13 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 44h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $4 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $24 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 96¢ $24 5d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 88¢ $6 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 88¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 93¢ $5 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 92¢ $32 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 92¢ $14 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 8¢ $1 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 63¢ $3 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 64¢ $3 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $10 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.99 · official $19.99 (match) · 1758 history records