Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:34:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5A 0x5ac4…ef2d other 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$858 (-8%) realized −$858 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%38W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$64
14 days−$36
30 days−$612
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$226
sports 17% −$525
world 2% −$200
crypto 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -2.2% -11.5% 47% 35% -14.0%
≤30d 47 -12.5% -20.9% 43% 38% -20.7%
≤90d 84 -12.0% -20.3% 45% 43% -17.5%
all 84 -12.0% -20.3% 45% 43% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 43% -17.5%
10% -28.0% 43% -25.4%
15% -34.9% 38% -32.6%
20% -41.3% 27% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$88 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$858
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses38 / 46
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage77d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $58 $57 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $61 −$3 -4%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $58 +$3 +6%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $27 +$33 +121%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $42 −$15 -36%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $25 −$17 -68%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$25 +49%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 +$26 +103%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $76 −$51 -67%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $91 −$21 -23%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$16 -32%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$110 +55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $61 −$31 -51%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $71 +$81 +113%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $61 +$28 +45%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $166 +$69 +41%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $71 −$1 -1%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $223 −$220 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $91 +$82 +90%
Will Gibraltar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $101 +$58 +58%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $171 +$57 +33%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $41 −$17 -43%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $203 −$91 -45%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $152 +$92 +60%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $8 −$2 -28%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $48 −$20 -41%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $35 +$13 +36%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $13 −$13 -98%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $26 −$13 -50%
Will O'Higgins FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $101 −$69 -68%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland May 31 $400 −$395 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $101 +$69 +68%
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland May 30 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Lillestrøm SK win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $232 +$83 +36%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $61 −$60 -98%
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $203 +$181 +90%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $163 −$49 -30%
West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $101 −$56 -55%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $101 −$100 -99%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score May 23 $101 +$33 +33%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $353 +$130 +37%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Lillestrøm SK win on 2026-03-22? May 20 $51 −$13 -25%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $506 −$500 -99%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $122 −$120 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $59 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 54¢ $58 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $61 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 70¢ $61 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 65¢ $58 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 60¢ $58 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $60 2h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $60 29h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $27 31h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 36¢ $27 31h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $42 32h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 13¢ $7 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 10¢ $9 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 54¢ $76 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $51 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 75¢ $51 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $25 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $22 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $76 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 50¢ $70 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $91 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 35¢ $34 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 69¢ $51 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 67¢ $50 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 12¢ $14 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.36 · official $57.36 (match) · 173 history records