Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:38:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5ac6…e3d5 crypto 1192 markets active 0h ago coverage 51d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$941 (-13%) realized −$941 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%568W / 640L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day48.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$79
14 days−$157
30 days−$285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,020
other 0% −$3
world 0% +$3
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -36.7% -42.7% 33% 31% -35.2%
≤30d 389 -16.7% -24.6% 46% 42% -19.4%
≤90d 1208 -17.4% -25.2% 47% 44% -22.8%
all 1208 -17.4% -25.2% 47% 44% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.2% 44% -22.8%
10% ← realistic here -32.4% 38% -30.2%
15% -38.9% 31% -36.9%
20% -44.9% 23% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$941
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses568 / 640
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1208 / 1192
History coverage51d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day48.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1208 Trades
no open positions (251 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 29? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 21? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$9 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$6 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$5 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$4 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$4 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $12 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $20 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $6 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $4 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $11 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $6 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $6 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $3 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $4 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $6 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $12 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $6 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records