Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:24:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5A 0x5ac6…e020 sports 348 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 76d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,635 (-4%) realized −$1,677 · open +$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate61%226W / 147L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$450est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$188
7 days−$372
14 days−$167
30 days−$1,164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2,421
other 0% +$7
crypto 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -2.1% -11.4% 59% 56% -13.4%
≤30d 102 -3.1% -12.3% 58% 55% -15.4%
≤90d 373 -10.2% -18.7% 61% 47% -14.4%
all 373 -10.2% -18.7% 61% 47% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 47% -14.4%
10% -26.5% 31% -22.6%
15% -33.6% 18% -30.1%
20% -40.1% 10% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$66 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$1,677
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses226 / 147
Est. fees paid−$450
Open positions1
Markets (closed)373 / 348
History coverage77d ⚠
Avg bet$130
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 373 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Guido Justo 58¢ 100¢ $58 $100 +$42 (+72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on March 30? Jun 18 $10 −$21 -200%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-22? Jun 18 $11 −$22 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on March 28? Jun 18 $7 −$13 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 28? Jun 18 $3 −$5 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on March 30? Jun 18 $5 −$10 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 10°C on March 30? Jun 18 $7 −$14 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on March 30? Jun 18 $1 −$3 -200%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 28? Jun 18 $5 −$11 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on March 28? Jun 18 $1 −$2 -200%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 23? Jun 18 $2 −$4 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on March 31? Jun 18 $4 −$8 -201%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C or below on March 28? Jun 18 $3 −$5 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on March 27? Jun 18 $4 −$8 -204%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on March 28? Jun 18 $1 −$2 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on March 28? Jun 18 $3 −$5 -200%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-10? Jun 18 $2 −$4 -201%
Will "War Machine" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 18 $1 −$2 -200%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 24? Jun 18 $2 −$4 -200%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-22? Jun 18 $5 −$10 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on March Jun 18 $2 −$4 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on March 30? Jun 18 $3 −$6 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 24? Jun 18 $1 −$2 -200%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-04? Jun 18 $3 −$5 -201%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 26? Jun 18 $1 −$2 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 10°C on March 31? Jun 18 $1 −$2 -201%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on March 31? Jun 18 $3 −$6 -201%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin Jun 18 $86 +$111 +128%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $99 −$98 -98%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 18 $209 −$207 -99%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola Jun 18 $115 +$106 +92%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $300 −$13 -4%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $191 +$109 +57%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $166 +$27 +16%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 17 $170 +$7 +4%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith Jun 17 $109 −$108 -99%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym Jun 17 $131 +$68 +52%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $107 −$106 -99%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $238 +$53 +22%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $157 +$43 +27%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $142 +$85 +60%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $75 −$74 -98%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $113 +$87 +76%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $123 −$122 -99%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $119 +$78 +66%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $194 −$37 -19%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 15 $107 −$104 -96%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $194 −$192 -99%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $222 +$27 +12%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 14 $117 +$80 +69%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $111 −$110 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Guido Justo 58¢ $27 1h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Guido Justo 58¢ $31 1h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin SELL Zhizhen Zhang 100¢ $197 1h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin BUY Zhizhen Zhang 43¢ $86 4h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 49¢ $99 5h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 69¢ $209 6h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola SELL Remy Bertola 100¢ $200 6h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 46¢ $62 7h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 46¢ $30 7h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola SELL Remy Bertola 43¢ $17 7h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola SELL Remy Bertola 45¢ $2 7h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola SELL Remy Bertola 45¢ $2 7h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 45¢ $4 7h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 45¢ $9 7h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 45¢ $9 7h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp SELL Tommy Paul 75¢ $287 7h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 78¢ $48 7h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 78¢ $43 7h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 78¢ $4 7h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 78¢ $78 7h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 78¢ $78 7h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 78¢ $49 8h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 100¢ $300 8h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 63¢ $191 10h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 97¢ $193 10h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 83¢ $166 10h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Daniel Rincon 75¢ $100 25h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Daniel Rincon 75¢ $6 25h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Daniel Rincon 75¢ $6 25h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano SELL Stefano Napolitano 28¢ $27 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.95 · official $99.95 (match) · 3500 history records