Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:05:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5ac8…95c7 economics 9 markets active 6d ago coverage 183d
RISKYcopy with care economics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$361 (-98%) realized −$360 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 100% −$361
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 8 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$45 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$360
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage183d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 29 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $45 −$45 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $20 −$20 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $135 −$135 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $94 −$94 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $8 6d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY Yes 0¢ $4 49d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $11 90d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $13 91d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 139d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 139d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 140d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $30 140d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 140d
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 188d
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 188d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 188d
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 2¢ $48 188d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $50 188d
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 2¢ $13 189d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $13 189d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 189d
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 2¢ $25 189d
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 2¢ $39 189d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.17 · official $6.17 (match) · 19 history records