Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:21:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5acf…b102 crypto 364 markets active 11h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$94 (-8%) realized −$39 · open −$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%188W / 174L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day82.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$35
sports 21% −$23
world 6% +$2
politics 6% $0
weather 4% −$55
other 1% −$2
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 354 -3.6% -12.7% 52% 49% -12.8%
≤30d 362 -3.9% -13.1% 52% 49% -14.1%
≤90d 362 -3.9% -13.1% 52% 49% -14.1%
all 362 -3.9% -13.1% 52% 49% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 49% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 49% -22.3%
15% -29.0% 48% -29.8%
20% -36.0% 39% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$39
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses188 / 174
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)362 / 364
History coverage7d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day82.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 362 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 106 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $12 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $6 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $12 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $0.07 (match) · 756 history records