Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:58:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5A 0x5ad1…8f0e sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$55 (-4%) realized −$91 · open +$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$92
other 11% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +6.4% -3.8% 67% 67% -16.6%
≤30d 6 +6.4% -3.8% 67% 67% -16.6%
≤90d 6 +6.4% -3.8% 67% 67% -16.6%
all 6 +6.4% -3.8% 67% 67% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 67% -16.6%
10% -13.0% 67% -24.6%
15% -21.4% 50% -31.8%
20% -29.1% 33% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$166 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$256
Realized−$91
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C UCAM Esports Club 72¢ 92¢ $200 $256 +$56 (+28%)
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WRAITH PCIFIC - Map 2 Winner Misa Esports 18¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $139 +$50 +36%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED League Pl Jun 22 $201 −$183 -91%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $81 +$56 +69%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $202 −$149 -74%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $81 +$55 +67%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $304 +$93 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 BUY UCAM Esports Club 72¢ $202 54m
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL No 100¢ $189 55m
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED League Pl SELL Misa Esports 8¢ $18 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY No 73¢ $139 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner SELL Lilmix 100¢ $137 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner BUY Lilmix 58¢ $81 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL L1ga Team 21¢ $0 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL L1ga Team 19¢ $52 2h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WRAITH PCIFIC - Map 2 Winner BUY Misa Esports 18¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED League Pl BUY Misa Esports 84¢ $201 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner SELL L1ga Team 100¢ $135 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 76¢ $30 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 52¢ $51 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY L1ga Team 71¢ $202 5h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series SELL Walczaki 82¢ $311 7h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series SELL Walczaki 68¢ $85 7h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 53¢ $101 8h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 63¢ $101 8h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 63¢ $101 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $256.03 · official $242.12 · 19 history records