Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:38:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5A 0x5ad2…3a5d other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$875 (-2%) realized −$891 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate65%24W / 13L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$930per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$866now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$314
7 days−$1,643
14 days−$1,252
30 days−$1,232
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$1,200
other 35% −$2,628
sports 15% +$424
tech 11% +$106
finance 1% −$17
crypto 0% −$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -1.3% -10.7% 75% 38% -16.9%
≤30d 30 -12.3% -20.6% 67% 30% -13.1%
≤90d 37 -11.9% -20.3% 65% 27% -12.2%
all 37 -11.9% -20.3% 65% 27% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 27% -12.2%
10% -27.9% 11% -20.6%
15% -34.9% 3% -28.2%
20% -41.3% 3% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$1,261) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -23% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$354 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$866
Realized−$891
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses24 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage42d
Avg bet$930
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 Over 91¢ 92¢ $850 $866 +$16 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $808 +$44 +5%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $769 +$38 +5%
Norway vs. France: France O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $711 +$59 +8%
Norway vs. France: France O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $635 +$75 +12%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $601 +$33 +6%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $538 +$64 +12%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $443 +$94 +21%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $405 +$39 +10%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $427 −$24 -6%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2,852 −$2,424 -85%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2,464 +$389 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,248 +$216 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,477 +$769 +52%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,411 −$1,411 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 22 $1,487 −$8 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $2,995 +$404 +14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 19 $699 +$18 +3%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $1,030 −$334 -32%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $814 +$216 +26%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2,098 +$490 +23%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $2,025 +$70 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $272 +$11 +4%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 08 $865 +$35 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 07 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? Jun 07 $199 −$199 -100%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 05 $831 +$4 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $941 +$258 +27%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 28 $1,001 −$58 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $1,261 +$26 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,171 +$196 +17%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $183 −$8 -4%
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T? May 26 $16 −$13 -85%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $380 −$17 -4%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 24 $624 +$12 +2%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 20 $619 +$6 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $852 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $852 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 95¢ $808 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $808 3h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 95¢ $769 3h
Norway vs. France: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $770 3h
Norway vs. France: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $711 3h
Norway vs. France: France O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $711 3h
Norway vs. France: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $635 18h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 95¢ $601 26h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $602 26h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $538 41h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 82¢ $443 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 80¢ $443 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $405 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $403 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $427 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 13¢ $428 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $2,852 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $2,464 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $2,248 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,246 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,477 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1,480 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $55 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $67 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $335 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $982 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $12 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $865.54 · official $856.18 · 201 history records