Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:37:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5A 0x5ad3…15c8 other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized −$16 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%14W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$510now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days+$1
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$10
crypto 3% +$36
sports 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +6.1% -4.0% 69% 69% -9.5%
≤30d 22 +0.4% -9.2% 64% 64% -10.6%
≤90d 22 +0.4% -9.2% 64% 64% -10.6%
all 22 +0.4% -9.2% 64% 64% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 64% -10.6%
10% -17.9% 59% -19.2%
15% -25.8% 59% -27.0%
20% -33.1% 32% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$60 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$510
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses14 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)22 / 28
History coverage13d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 76¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 97¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+15%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $45 +$27 +60%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$20 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $85 +$62 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $42 +$15 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$20 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$10 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$30 +60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$56 +109%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $39 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $50 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $45 3d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $85 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $201 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $42 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 8d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 13d
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 83¢ $101 13d
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 13d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $510.24 · official $510.26 (match) · 56 history records