Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:22:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
5A 0x5ad6…5e1c world 168 markets active 2h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,822 (+8%) realized +$3,872 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate60%84W / 56L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$278per market
Trades / day28.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$2,977now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$261
7 days+$785
14 days+$842
30 days+$3,432
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$3,790
other 12% −$88
politics 7% +$333
sports 3% +$13
finance 2% −$272
economics 1% +$4
tech 1% −$20
crypto 1% −$414
culture 0% $0
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +9.9% -0.6% 62% 38% -3.3%
≤30d 120 +2.8% -7.0% 61% 34% -1.1%
≤90d 140 +0.6% -9.0% 60% 30% -2.3%
all 140 +0.6% -9.0% 60% 30% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 30% -2.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 21% -11.7%
15% -25.7% 14% -20.2%
20% -33.0% 10% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$49 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.31 per $1 lost it wins $2.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$2,977
Realized+$3,872
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses84 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions27
Markets (closed)140 / 168
History coverage48d
Avg bet$278
Trades / day28.4
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 97¢ $484 $503 +$19 (+4%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $341 $329 −$13 (-4%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $289 $295 +$6 (+2%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 95¢ 96¢ $284 $287 +$2 (+1%)
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Yes 70¢ 84¢ $200 $241 +$41 (+21%)
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $231 $214 −$17 (-8%)
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026? Yes 84¢ 80¢ $167 $160 −$7 (-4%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 58¢ 40¢ $182 $127 −$55 (-30%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? No 63¢ 65¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30? No 95¢ 93¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Yes 77¢ 82¢ $77 $82 +$5 (+6%)
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 63¢ 34¢ $146 $77 −$69 (-47%)
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $60 $62 +$1 (+2%)
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Yes 62¢ 77¢ $47 $59 +$12 (+25%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Yes 22¢ 23¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+2%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $48 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 14¢ 81¢ $4 $22 +$18 (+482%)
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+4%)
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-25%)
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 43¢ 76¢ $8 $14 +$6 (+76%)
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $17 $13 −$4 (-21%)
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Yes 13¢ 27¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+108%)
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in June? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $13 $9 −$3 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 17 $62 +$50 +81%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 17 $540 +$20 +4%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$20 +44%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 17 $48 +$12 +25%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$8 -38%
Will Marco Rubio attend the G7 Summit? Jun 16 $1,110 +$39 +4%
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? Jun 16 $499 +$39 +8%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 16 $60 −$21 -35%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 15 $33 −$6 -18%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $368 +$25 +7%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 15 $117 +$39 +33%
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 15 $77 +$20 +26%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 15 $1,095 +$32 +3%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $820 +$57 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $100 +$70 +70%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 14 $122 −$26 -21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $150 +$103 +69%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $976 +$23 +2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 14 $100 +$23 +23%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $32 +$32 +100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $37 +$44 +118%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $32 −$32 -98%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 14 $104 −$44 -42%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 14 $64 −$41 -64%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $154 −$41 -26%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 14 $324 −$8 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? Jun 14 $28 −$2 -6%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 14 $105 +$4 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $115 +$78 +67%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $1,844 −$70 -4%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $69 −$12 -18%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J Jun 14 $63 +$26 +42%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 14 $151 +$8 +6%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Jun 12 $102 −$3 -3%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $180 −$4 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $21 $0 +1%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $649 +$312 +48%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $7 −$2 -27%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $126 −$20 -16%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $92 +$88 +96%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $20 +$3 +16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $120 +$16 +14%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $266 −$61 -23%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $10 +$7 +70%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 10 $152 +$7 +4%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $19 −$19 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $200 −$198 -99%
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in June? Jun 09 $37 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY Yes 70¢ $200 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 58¢ $16 1h
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $112 1h
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 2h
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $62 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $16 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 60¢ $28 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 3h
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? SELL Yes 98¢ $246 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 57¢ $57 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 57¢ $0 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 58¢ $58 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 65¢ $5 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 65¢ $27 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 65¢ $5 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 65¢ $29 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY Yes 96¢ $192 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 45¢ $45 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY Yes 96¢ $24 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY Yes 96¢ $24 7h
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $100 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? SELL Yes 98¢ $314 7h
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in June? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $60 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,976.70 · official $2,969.72 (match) · 1447 history records