Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:07:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5A 0x5ad6…0434 crypto 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 759d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$201 (+3%) realized +$202 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate82%47W / 10L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$181now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$87
14 days+$77
30 days+$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% +$146
other 11% +$54
politics 5% −$2
world 3% $0
tech 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +20.5% +9.0% 100% 25% +3.0%
≤30d 9 -1.7% -11.1% 89% 11% -2.9%
≤90d 21 -0.5% -10.0% 95% 5% -6.2%
all 57 -4.2% -13.3% 82% 11% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 11% -6.9%
10% -21.6% 7% -15.8%
15% -29.2% 4% -24.0%
20% -36.1% 2% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.23 per $1 lost it wins $3.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

759d coverage
Net worth$181
Realized+$202
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses47 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage759d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $183 $181 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $180 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $180 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $170 +$11 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $98 +$72 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 13 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? Jun 10 $107 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27? Jun 04 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 23? May 26 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 21 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on May 17? May 18 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 10? May 13 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 5? May 07 $106 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 02 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 23? Apr 26 $106 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 17? Apr 21 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 11? Apr 15 $105 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Apr 10 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on April 2? Apr 10 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on March 27? Mar 31 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? Mar 26 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on March 8? Mar 15 $104 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 08 $208 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 1? Mar 02 $104 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 01 $104 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 26? Mar 01 $103 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 27? Feb 26 $101 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 26? Jan 26 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 22? Jan 26 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 14? Jan 14 $115 −$15 -13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 6? Jan 14 $111 +$4 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 29-January 4? Jan 06 $110 +$1 +0%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Jan 04 $105 +$6 +5%
Will Solana reach $190 in November? Dec 13 $99 +$6 +6%
Will Solana reach $300 in October? Nov 19 $93 +$6 +6%
Will Solana reach $300 in September? Oct 15 $90 +$4 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in August? Sep 20 $85 +$5 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Aug 02 $60 +$25 +41%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jul 19 $48 +$12 +25%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? Jun 02 $40 +$8 +20%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? May 10 $39 +$1 +4%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 25 $33 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum above $2,700 on February 14? Feb 15 $242 +$8 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $4,250 by January 31, 2025? Feb 14 $239 +$3 +1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Election certified on January 6? Jan 07 $242 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k again in 2024? Jan 02 $262 +$2 +1%
Ethereum above $3,900 on December 20? Dec 21 $260 +$2 +1%
Pudgy Penguin floor price above 25 eth on Friday? Dec 18 $264 −$4 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $185 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $180 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $180 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $180 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $170 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $98 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $109 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 99¢ $107 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $108 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $107 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $107 33d
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on May 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $107 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $107 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $106 49d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $106 55d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $106 60d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $105 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $105 71d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $95 81d
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $10 81d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $104 86d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? BUY No 100¢ $104 97d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on March 8? BUY No 100¢ $103 104d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on March 8? BUY No 100¢ $1 104d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $104 104d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $104 106d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $104 109d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $104 110d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $104 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.25 · official $181.25 (match) · 129 history records