Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:13:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5ad6…15c8 crypto 884 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,732 (-7%) realized −$2,727 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate60%527W / 356L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day28.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$91
7 days−$42
14 days−$7
30 days−$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$810
other 23% −$2,499
sports 1% −$104
world 0% +$70
weather 0% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 286 -2.5% -11.8% 63% 62% -9.9%
≤30d 472 -3.3% -12.5% 58% 57% -10.5%
≤90d 883 -2.0% -11.3% 60% 56% -17.6%
all 883 -2.0% -11.3% 60% 56% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 56% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 49% -25.5%
15% -27.5% 41% -32.7%
20% -34.6% 32% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$38 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,727
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses527 / 356
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)883 / 884
History coverage47d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day28.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 883 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 290 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$12 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$27 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$11 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 1752 history records