Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:46:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5ad7…e480 other 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate10%12W / 111L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$11
politics 33% −$9
sports 11% −$61
tech 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
world 2% $0
culture 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 77 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 123 -4.3% -13.4% 10% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 5% -9.8%
10% -21.7% 4% -18.5%
15% -29.3% 3% -26.3%
20% -36.2% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×4.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage142d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $32 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $343 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $202 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $851 −$1 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $157 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $202 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $180 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $396 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $148 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $154 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $206 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $339 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 03 $193 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $166 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $153 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $200 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $186 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $189 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $145 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $175 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 29 $359 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $184 $0 -0%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $169 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $152 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $188 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $209 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $143 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 19 $326 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $161 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $196 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $165 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $185 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $181 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $348 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $162 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $196 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $577 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $311 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $148 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $145 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $211 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $146 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $148 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $153 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $165 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $209 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $179 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 4d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 4d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 16d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $183 23d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $183 27d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $172 28d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $172 30d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $202 30d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $202 31d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $207 31d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $207 36d
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $157 38d
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $157 39d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $202 47d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $202 48d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $180 48d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $180 48d
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $187 48d
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $187 49d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $148 49d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $148 49d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $154 49d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $154 50d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $206 50d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $206 50d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $201 51d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $201 51d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $152 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.00 · official $30.00 (match) · 365 history records