Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:13:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

5A 0x5ad9…ea6f tech 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d

RISKYcopy with care tech specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$46 (+15%) realized +$46 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip

Net edge+4%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$75per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 116d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+4.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	2	+22.5%	+10.8%	100%	50%	+23.4%
all	3	+15.2%	+4.2%	100%	33%	+18.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+4.2%	33%	+18.2%
10%	-5.7%	33%	+6.9%
15%	-14.8%	33%	-3.4%
20%	-23.2%	0%	-12.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +36% too few recent

Fragile wins

67% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +15% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$15 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage

Net worth$148

Realized+$46

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage116d

Avg bet$75

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	99¢	100¢	$148	$148	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. SS Lazio end in a draw?	Apr 14	$102	+$46	+45%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March?	Apr 13	$24	$0	+0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru	Mar 15	$24	$0	+1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3	BUY No	99¢	$148	1h
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. SS Lazio end in a draw?	BUY No	69¢	$102	68d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March?	BUY No	100¢	$24	89d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru	BUY Yes	99¢	$24	115d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.37 · official $148.37 (match) · 7 history records