Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:53:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5A 0x5adb…076c other 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+1%) realized +$23 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%67W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days+$71
14 days+$57
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$35
sports 25% +$83
crypto 5% −$25
world 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +23.9% +12.1% 62% 53% -3.4%
≤30d 98 +4.9% -5.1% 48% 41% -6.2%
≤90d 98 +4.9% -5.1% 48% 41% -6.2%
all 135 -1.4% -10.8% 50% 41% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 41% -8.1%
10% -19.3% 32% -16.9%
15% -27.1% 21% -24.9%
20% -34.3% 16% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$23
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses67 / 68
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 137
History coverage107d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $63 −$1 -2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $52 +$11 +21%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $33 +$19 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $74 −$42 -56%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $36 −$2 -7%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $248 −$6 -2%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 −$14 -71%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 +$10 +105%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 −$17 -63%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $35 −$8 -23%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 −$6 -54%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $4 +$1 +29%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$7 +28%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $5 $0 +9%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $23 +$8 +36%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 $0 +3%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 +$16 +40%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -15%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $56 +$39 +70%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $67 +$29 +43%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $90 −$22 -25%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $23 +$6 +26%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $12 +$10 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $27 +$7 +26%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $6 −$4 -67%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $3 $0 +8%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 +22%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$8 +79%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $6 +$2 +26%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 AND Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end Jun 16 $3 +$12 +390%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $6 +$3 +48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$15 +237%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$6 -50%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 +$4 +48%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 $0 -6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $14 $0 +4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $13 −$1 -8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$4 -56%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -64%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $61 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $62 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $63 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 83¢ $63 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $52 8h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $33 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 40¢ $33 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $74 21h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 32¢ $33 21h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 33¢ $36 21h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $71 22h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 22h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 22h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $20 23h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 48¢ $10 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $26 25h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $26 25h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $27 43h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 65¢ $13 43h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 67¢ $14 43h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $35 46h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $25 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $11 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $11 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $4 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $109 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $17 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.33 · official $59.33 (match) · 332 history records