Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:47:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5add…f57d other 252 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$74 (-0%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 243L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$21
14 days−$30
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$38
sports 27% −$24
politics 10% −$5
economics 7% −$6
culture 6% −$6
crypto 6% −$5
world 4% $0
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 164 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 252 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)252 / 252
History coverage139d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 252 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $138 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 22 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $315 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $306 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 21 $240 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $655 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $585 −$2 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $130 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $646 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $294 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $685 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $309 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $280 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $147 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $853 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $143 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $211 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $489 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $138 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $254 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $438 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $483 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $438 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $546 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $157 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $663 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $501 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $337 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $68 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $578 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $526 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $391 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $404 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $349 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $258 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $573 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $382 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $380 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $253 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $72 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $63 1h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $63 3h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $63 4h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $63 5h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 10h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 11h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 13h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 15h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $64 17h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $64 19h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $64 19h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 20h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 23h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 24h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $64 26h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $64 28h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $64 32h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $64 34h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $64 39h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $64 41h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $64 44h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $64 46h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $64 47h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $65 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $65 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $65 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $65 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $65 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1420 history records