Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:23:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5add…f36f sports 150 markets active 1h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$479 (+0%) realized +$562 · open −$83
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate63%93W / 54L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$900per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$247now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days+$246
14 days+$246
30 days+$246
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% +$113
sports 14% +$1,020
other 2% −$402
finance 2% −$398
politics 1% +$34
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -16.5% -24.5% 50% 50% +25.7%
≤30d 16 -16.5% -24.5% 50% 50% +25.7%
≤90d 38 -21.9% -29.4% 47% 47% -27.3%
all 147 -5.6% -14.6% 63% 38% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 38% -9.2%
10% -22.8% 35% -17.9%
15% -30.2% 26% -25.8%
20% -37.1% 22% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$131 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$247
Realized+$562
Unrealized−$83
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses93 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions3
Markets (closed)147 / 150
History coverage267d
Avg bet$900
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 60¢ $300 $236 −$64 (-21%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 8¢ 18¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+119%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$12 +24%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $50 +$19 +38%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 +$16 +32%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $71 +$122 +171%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $51 +$60 +119%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 +$36 +36%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $51 +$32 +63%
Valorant: Team Envy vs MIBR (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha May 10 $51 +$71 +140%
Valorant: MIBR vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha Apr 27 $119 −$117 -99%
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Apr 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Apr 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Group Omega Apr 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 16 $200 +$146 +73%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Apr 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omeg Apr 13 $290 −$290 -100%
Valorant: Cloud9 vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Grou Apr 13 $500 −$16 -3%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Wolves Esports (BO3) - VCT China Group Omega Apr 12 $200 +$61 +31%
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha Apr 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Valorant: Team Envy vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha Apr 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Valorant: Sentinels vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Apr 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs MIBR (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha Apr 11 $300 −$300 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Grou Apr 11 $500 +$241 +48%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Apr 11 $100 +$53 +53%
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Apr 10 $100 +$52 +52%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Apr 10 $200 +$114 +57%
Valorant: Fnatic vs ULF Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Apr 02 $200 +$53 +27%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Mar 22 $200 +$63 +32%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 20 $200 +$44 +22%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 20 $250 −$250 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Mar 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Play Mar 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stage Mar 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Valorant: T1 vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stage Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoff Mar 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Mar 19 $60 −$60 -100%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Liquid (BO5) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoffs Mar 19 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 17 $400 +$316 +79%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid (BO5) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs Mar 16 $200 +$93 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 18h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 18h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 20h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 21h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $51 26h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 28h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 28h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 72¢ $50 46h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $50 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 45¢ $51 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 4d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Vitality 61¢ $51 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 36¢ $71 16d
Valorant: Team Envy vs MIBR (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha BUY Team Envy 41¢ $51 38d
Valorant: MIBR vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha BUY MIBR 54¢ $119 51d
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha BUY Karmine Corp 44¢ $200 62d
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega BUY Team Vitality 51¢ $200 62d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Group Omega BUY EDward Gaming 52¢ $200 62d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A BUY Team Falcons 57¢ $200 62d
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $200 62d
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omeg BUY NRG 38¢ $20 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $246.75 · official $246.75 (match) · 1128 history records