Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:36:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5add…10df other 120 markets active 7h ago coverage 207d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$295 (-13%) realized −$267 · open −$28
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate55%60W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 23% −$102
weather 21% −$44
tech 18% −$20
world 11% −$11
culture 9% −$20
crypto 6% −$29
economics 5% −$26
politics 5% −$18
finance 2% −$27
sports 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -5.6% -14.6% 56% 44% -16.2%
≤30d 12 -18.7% -26.4% 50% 42% -34.1%
≤90d 26 -26.6% -33.5% 50% 42% -31.0%
all 110 -19.7% -27.3% 55% 37% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 37% -21.3%
10% -34.3% 25% -28.8%
15% -40.6% 16% -35.7%
20% -46.5% 9% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$267
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses60 / 50
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)110 / 120
History coverage207d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $35 $30 −$5 (-15%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 70¢ 98¢ $16 $22 +$6 (+40%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $21 $19 −$2 (-8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $15 −$5 (-24%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $13 −$17 (-57%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 64¢ 13¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +42%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +224%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200? May 23 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this May 19 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listene May 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Noah rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025? May 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 15 $2 $0 -13%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Apr 12 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or higher on March 11? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Wales win? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 11? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy A Apr 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $2 $0 +8%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $20 +$2 +12%
ICE shooter charged by March 31? Apr 01 $25 +$8 +32%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? Mar 19 $1 $0 +30%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 19 $2 $0 +6%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 9? Mar 09 $1 +$2 +246%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 9? Mar 09 $1 $0 +20%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Mar 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or below on March 8? Mar 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 02 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28? Feb 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 23? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Feb 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 13? Feb 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or higher on February 13 Feb 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 16? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 18? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Delta Air Lines (DAL) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Feb 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Will 2000 Meters to Andriivka be nominated for Best Documentary Featur Feb 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Feb 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18 BUY 34¢ $2 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 45¢ $5 32h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $1 43h
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 0 Norway? BUY Yes $1 43h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 43h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 46h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $4 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $3 5d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes $2 6d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 6d
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200? SELL Yes 97¢ $6 26d
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this BUY Yes $3 29d
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 29d
Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listene BUY Yes 13¢ $10 29d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes $2 34d
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $7 34d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 91¢ $5 38d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 89¢ $5 38d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $5 54d
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 54d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 78¢ $5 69d
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 94d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa SELL Yes 78¢ $20 94d
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or higher on March 11? BUY Yes $1 100d
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 11? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 101d
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 9? SELL Yes 90¢ $3 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.00 · official $110.98 · 424 history records