Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:36:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5A 0x5ade…412d crypto 288 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$29 (+1%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%280W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day48.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$18
finance 2% +$1
other 2% +$1
sports 1% +$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 287 +0.5% -9.1% 98% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 287 +0.5% -9.1% 98% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 287 +0.5% -9.1% 98% 0% -9.0%
all 287 +0.5% -9.1% 98% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 0% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$14 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses280 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)287 / 288
History coverage6d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day48.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 287 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? No 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $20 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 37m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 42m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 42m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $15 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 15? BUY Yes 93¢ $15 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $15 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.24 · official $19.60 (match) · 586 history records