Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:44:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5A 0x5ade…8470 weather 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$55 (-1%) realized +$10 · open −$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%102W / 8L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$4
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% −$55
politics 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.0% -9.5% 90% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 56 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 98 +0.2% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
all 110 +0.1% -9.4% 93% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×9.16 per $1 lost it wins $9.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$65
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses102 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage121d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? No 100¢ 48¢ $124 $59 −$65 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $108 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 21? Jun 21 $85 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 21? Jun 21 $143 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 20? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 20? Jun 20 $149 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $228 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $229 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $211 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $208 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? Jun 14 $130 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 12? Jun 13 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $188 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $227 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 9? Jun 10 $228 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $225 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 8? Jun 09 $224 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 7? Jun 07 $223 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $224 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $223 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 4? Jun 05 $223 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $224 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 3? Jun 03 $94 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 2? Jun 03 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 2? Jun 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 2? Jun 03 $94 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 2? Jun 02 $131 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 1? Jun 02 $93 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 1? Jun 02 $132 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 1? Jun 01 $92 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 31? Jun 01 $133 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on May 31? Jun 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on May 31? Jun 01 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 31? Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on May 31? May 31 $135 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 30? May 31 $168 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 30? May 31 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 29? May 30 $217 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 28? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on May 28? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May May 29 $89 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 28? May 29 $131 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on May 28? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $107 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $108 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $124 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $85 30h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $133 33h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $10 33h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $5 33h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $83 41h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $149 2d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $228 3d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $229 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $211 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $17 7d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $208 7d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $21 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $66 9d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $35 9d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $130 9d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $99 9d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $20 9d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $188 10d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 100¢ $40 10d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $227 10d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $228 12d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $225 12d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $224 13d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $223 15d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $224 16d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $223 17d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $223 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.90 · official $58.90 (match) · 223 history records