Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:37:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5ae0…2190 politics 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 319d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate28%9W / 23L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% $0
world 23% +$4
tech 16% −$1
sports 12% $0
other 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 33% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 7 +2.2% -7.5% 43% 14% -7.9%
≤90d 9 +2.3% -7.4% 44% 11% -8.0%
all 32 +0.7% -8.9% 28% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 3% -9.1%
10% -17.6% 3% -17.8%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.4 per $1 lost it wins $2.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

319d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses9 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage319d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $35 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $30 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $12 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 27 $8 −$1 -11%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 22 $33 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $14 +$4 +27%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 19 $14 +$1 +5%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $36 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 23 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 21 $63 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 13 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 13 $52 $0 +0%
Will a dozen eggs be between $4.00-4.25 in July? Aug 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 11 $56 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 06 $64 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 05 $48 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Aug 05 $52 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 04 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $36 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $25 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $10 4h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $26 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $26 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 20h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $12 26h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $12 28h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $7 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $8 26d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $2 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $13 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $6 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $14 28d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 75¢ $32 28d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $14 28d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $20 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 96¢ $20 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 96¢ $13 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 96¢ $33 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $2 30d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $13 30d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $14 30d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $36 30d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $36 30d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? SELL No 100¢ $1 177d
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $1 179d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records